The Patek Philippe Nautilus Turns 50 This Year — What Can We Expect?
How can a brand honor a watch celebrating its 50th anniversary? The easiest thing to do is to launch a homage edition of that classic. It so happens that 2026 marks the fifth decade of the illustrious Nautilus. But while every other brand could present a special 50th-anniversary model of its celebrated icon and then sit back, relax, and enjoy the show, Patek is in a real pickle. The Nautilus, in its basic steel form, has been causing the brand headaches in recent years. The idea of celebrating that watch’s 50th anniversary with a new reference could bring those back. Imagine what will happen if Patek releases a steel version of the Nautilus ref. 5811, now only available in white gold? Or how about a newly designed 5911/1A? You can imagine the length of wait lists and the prices on the secondary market, not to mention how it will reflect on Patek.
I don’t envy Thierry Stern. If I were the CEO of Patek Philippe, I would want to hide on a tropical island for the entirety of 2026, only to return to Geneva in 2027. I mean, 2026 is a significant year for Patek Philippe, as it marks the 50th anniversary of the Nautilus, and Mr. Stern has to come up with an appropriate way to celebrate the sporty yet luxurious watch that was created to boost sales by targeting a young generation. This strategy proved successful with the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, another Gérald Genta design, which debuted in 1972. Four years later, it also worked for Patek. But what happened to the Nautilus in the 2010s was unprecedented and impossible to predict at the start of the watch’s life. The hype surrounding the watch led to drastic actions by the CEO. By discontinuing the Nautilus ref. 5711/1A, he resolved the problem. It was a temporary solution, though, because 2026 marks the Nautilus’s 50th birthday, and there’s no way around that. How can Patek ever meet the expectations?
The Patek Philippe Nautilus turns 50 — now what?
When I write “Nautilus” in this article, I mean basic steel models, like the original ref. 3700 and its 2006 successor, the ref. 5711. Yes, there are many other Nautilus references, but these two are the foundation, with the steel 5711/1A being the watch that started the hype. This Nautilus, however, became a victim of its success. From the 2010s through the COVID-19 pandemic, the ref. 5711 became the most sought-after watch in the world. That led to decade-long wait lists and gray-market prices soaring to many times the 5711’s already lofty retail price. And that retail price was the result of a failed strategy. The idea was to put such a high price on the three-handed steel Nautilus that it would become unattractive. That backfired. The price made the watch even more exclusive and desirable, and with production numbers significantly lower than demand, prices on the secondary market skyrocketed to absurd levels.
Nautilus ref. 5711/1A — Image: Bob’s Watches
With (over)pricing not working, Thierry Stern made the call to discontinue the blue-dial 5711 in 2021, explaining that he didn’t want the brand to be defined by a single model. The 5711 went out in a blaze of green glory — two shades of green, actually. An olive-green variant appeared, followed by the ultra-rare Tiffany Blue edition.
Cubitus ref. 5821/1A-001
Cubitus, not Nautilus Quadrata
The steel three-hand Nautilus got a spiritual successor in the shape of the Cubitus ref. 5821/1A-001 with an olive-green sunburst dial. Based on its appearance, the 45 × 8.3mm ref. 5821/1A-001 could have been named Nautilus Quadrata. The squarish watch is every inch a Nautilus. Apart from the geometrical differences, the design language remains essentially the same. The case details, dial pattern, and bracelet say “Nautilus” in a language everybody speaks and understands. It even has a very Nautilus-like retail price of CHF 35,000. The design of the Cubitus sparked considerable discussion among watch enthusiasts. It’s also a commercial success, which helps pay the bills.
Nautilus ref. 5811/1G
27 references with one missing
Although 27 Nautilus references appear in the current collection, there’s also a big elephant in the room — the lack of a basic steel three-hander. The closest thing to a steel 5711 is the white gold ref. 5811/1G. The Nautilus 5811/1G is a modern reinterpretation of the 2006 5711/1A, rendered in white gold. The case increased from 40 to 41mm, and maybe more interestingly, it has a new construction — or rather, a return to the original design philosophy of the 1976 Nautilus 3700/1A. As you may recall, the inaugural Nautilus featured a monobloc case, meaning that while the bezel was a separate piece, the case and case back were a single unit. Therefore, the movement could only be removed from the dial side.
The 5711 ditched that construction for a more convenient and run-of-the-mill three-piece case. The 5811 is, in that sense, more of a purist’s watch than the 5711, but since it does not come in steel, it’s also not. By the way, the white gold watch, which is limited in production, has a retail price of CHF 63,100 and an average gray-market price of around CHF 150,000 on Chrono24, indicating the ongoing hype for the Nautilus.
5811/1A or 5811/1P, or 5911/1A?
What will 2026 bring us in terms of Nautilus anniversary models? The easiest thing for Patek to do is present the world with a ref. 5811/1A. The case design and construction are still fresh, and since they relate to the original ref. 3700, they are very appropriate for a 50th-anniversary Nautilus. But how would the brand handle pricing? Even with a price slightly above that of the 45mm steel Cubitus, production cannot keep up with demand.
Another possibility is a copy of what Patek did in 2016. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Nautilus, a platinum 5711 made its appearance. A platinum 5811 with baguette-cut diamond indexes could be a possibility, but that ref. 5811/1P may be a bit too similar to what the brand did a decade ago.
Introducing a ref. 5911/1A to celebrate 50 years of the Nautilus would be the right thing to do, but that’s only in the “normal” world. And the Nautilus isn’t part of the normal world any longer. A steel two- or three-handed Nautilus in a two-part, porthole-style case with a date on the blue dial would cause the same or possibly worse headaches than the ref. 5711 did in its final years of production.
Nautilus ref. 5711/1A — Image: The Watch Club
The price you pay
Also, a completely new reference in a celebratory year ideally needs a new movement, not the automatic caliber 26-330 S C from the final versions of the Nautilus 5711/1A and, now, various Cubitus models. Yes, the movement is only 3.3mm thick and features hacking seconds, but its 45-hour power reserve is not a brag-worthy feature nowadays. And you could argue that a Nautilus celebrating its 50th birthday is ready for a new micro-rotor movement.
Creating a new automatic micro-rotor movement from scratch would, of course, require a significant investment from Patek’s side. However, if the brand calculates the prices and production numbers correctly, it will pay for itself. Just don’t act surprised if a Nautilus ref. 5911/1A with such a new movement would retail for around CHF 90,000 or even break the CHF 100,000 ceiling. That’s the price you pay for wanting a watch Patek doesn’t want you to have. Remember, Thierry Stern once stated very clearly that he doesn’t want to see Patek Philippe become a one-watch brand because of the Nautilus. Going against his will is going to cost you. However, there will probably be more people who won’t mind paying the price for that than there will be watches.
The fourth solution to the Nautilus problem
There’s a fourth way to celebrate the Nautilus, though. Just like another famous Swiss watch brand sometimes does, Patek could simply ignore what the public expects and do nothing. There’s no point in introducing a steel “basic” Nautilus in the market we’re experiencing right now; maybe Patek would have better luck in another 50 years. Or the brand could introduce a one-off grand-complication Nautilus desk clock — in steel, of course.
Now, please let me know what you expect Patek Philippe to do with the Nautilus for its 50th anniversary. Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
